The short answer
Set cross-border acquisition budgets from short-term contribution after discounts, fees, logistics, returns, and local support. Add LTV to the acquisition ceiling only after repeat purchase and cash payback are verified in the target-market cohort.
Do not use projected lifetime value as the funding case before entering a new market. Google Ads explains that repeat business and lifetime customer value can inform conversion value, while short-term values may be more suitable when immediate profit or cash-funded acquisition is the objective.
Start with order contribution before advertising cost: local selling price minus discounts, product cost, platform and payment fees, cross-border and domestic logistics, returns, local-language support, and promotion burden. This value and the required profit buffer determine the acquisition-cost ceiling.
Create cohorts by acquisition month, channel, and first-purchase SKU, then track repeat purchases, refunds, returns, net revenue, and variable cost under one definition. GA4 cohort exploration can compare behaviour over time, but final contribution should reconcile to commerce and finance records.
When the local cohort is immature, do not treat home-market retention as local performance. Use short-term contribution or a conservative range, then increase the LTV weight only for cohorts that pass the agreed cash-payback and maximum-loss gates.
A Fit Call is a pre-contract fit check with no cohort analysis, LTV calculation, budget design, or deliverable. Local contribution, payback, and acquisition-ceiling work begins only after a paid Market Diagnostic agreement.